It is natural for a country that has historically played the role of the balancer in European diplomacy, keeping its distance from continental Europe as much as it can, to decide that it had enough. Britain’s choice to extricate itself from the European experiment, seems to be gathering steam, which is not surprising. Issues such as immigration from Europe, the economic challenges facing the continent and the lack of decisive action on any topic, within many European organizations, has Britain thinking that its most iconic diplomats from centuries past had a point. But as much as being part of a supra-national union with another 27 nations in continental Europe may sound like the wrong step to most in Britain, pulling out now may bring the demise of Britain itself.
Markets have certainly responded negatively to recent polls that have the Euro-skeptics in the lead. The British Pound has suffered tremendously, and that is just a sign of things to come should Britain vote to quit the EU. If Britain quits, it will have to grapple with higher unemployment rates, as companies that service EU markets would rather chose to so from a location within the union. British exports to members of the union will inevitably decline, as new trade agreements would have to be negotiated. Nevertheless, the most overlooked scenario is probably the most daunting of all: renewed Scottish independence movements underpinned by the desire of those who would like to remain EU citizens.
So far, Cameron’s government managed to avert Scottish secession with an arduous campaign that persuaded Scotland to remain a part of Britain. If Britain changes the political configuration that the Scotts chose to stay within, then Scotland will probably secede to remain a part of the EU. This scenario compounds any other economic loss that Britain might suffer as a result of Brexit.
Hopefully these gloomy Brexit scenarios will resonate with the voters and Britain will remain within the EU. The economy is not in great shape as is, so giving it another shock is the last thing British citizens should want to do now. Hopefully the value of the pound has suffered enough to show Britain how this begins, and the long shadow of a future after Brexit will show voters which choice is the right one.