Artem Voloskovets
The two measurements are much higher than what analysts expected. They show that consumers are buying goods and services at a fast rate again - this increase follows the period in July when consumers bought less.
August vs. July
| Metric | August | Forecast | July |
| Retail sales, m/m | +1.2% | +0.8% | -0.5% |
| Control group, m/m | +1.4% | +0.5% | -0.4% |
| Ex-auto & gasoline | +1.2% | +0.5% | -0.2% |
| Online sales | +2.6% | — | -2.2% |
| Gasoline stations | +3.1% | — | -0.9% |
Headline sales swung 1.7 percentage points from July to August. The control group improved by 1.8 points.
Where Sales Increased
- Nonstore/online retailers: +2.6% m/m
- Gasoline stations: +3.1%
- Sales excluding autos and gasoline: +1.2%
The cost for gasoline increased by 3.9% during August compared to July - this growth is the reason that gasoline station customers paid larger amounts of currency for fuel. There are higher total revenues recorded at those retail locations because of the price adjustment.
Control Group Is the Key Number
The control group excludes autos, gasoline, building materials and food services and feeds into the goods component of personal consumption expenditures used in GDP calculations.
The current growth rate is +1.4% - it is 0.9 percentage point higher than the predicted value of +0.5%. The figure replaces the decrease of 0.4% that occurred in July.
Control group: -0.4% → +1.4% in one month.
This indicates that August's retail-sales strength extended beyond autos and gasoline.
Technical Details
Retail sales are reported by the U.S. Census Bureau and are:
- seasonally adjusted;
- measured in nominal dollars;
- not adjusted for inflation;
- subject to revision.
The Consumer Price Index for August rose by 0.4% each month - some of the 1.2% total increase in value exists because sellers now charge more for goods and services.
Bottom Line
- Retail sales: +1.2% vs. +0.8% expected
- Control group: +1.4% vs. +0.5% expected
- Previous month: -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively
The largest surprise was the control group, which beat consensus by 0.9 percentage point and recorded a 1.8-point monthly reversal from July.
Artem Voloskovets
