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Global economy

Macroeconomic trends, data releases, and policy updates

Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
2 days ago

How One Decision in Washington Triggered a Global Market Rally

When Donald Trump announced that planned strikes against Iran had been cancelled, U.S. stocks rallied and oil prices fell.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
2 days ago

The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Almost Empty. That Matters More Than the Latest Uptick

Three counterparties placed $460 million into the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo (RRP) facility, up from $387 million in the previous operation.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
2 days ago

Mortgage Rates Aren't Falling. That's Becoming a Bigger Problem Than Rates Themselves

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. rose to 6.52% for the week ending June 11, up from 6.48% a week earlier, according to Freddie Mac.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
2 days ago

IMF's ECB Warning Signals a Bigger Problem Than Another Rate Hike

The European Central Bank raised its key rates by 25 basis points, lifting the deposit facility rate to 2.25%.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
5 days ago

Global Growth Is Slowing. The Oil Market Has a Bigger Problem.

Investors worried about the Middle East are asking the wrong question.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
5 days ago

Americans Expect 3% Inflation, But Not an Inflation Problem

Americans still expect inflation to average 3.0% over the next five years, according to the latest New York Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. That figure remains above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, yet other parts of the survey point in a different direction.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
1 week ago

Two-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since February 2025: Three Markets That Could Feel the Impact

The yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury note has climbed to its highest level since February 2025, even as the Federal Reserve continues operating below the peak rates of the tightening cycle. The move is forcing investors to rethink expectations for future rate cuts and could have implications for technology stocks, banks, and income-focused sectors.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
1 week ago

Ukraine's Money Supply Growth Remains Elevated as NBU Sees Inflation Reaching 9.4%

Ukraine's central bank expects inflation to accelerate this year before gradually returning to target. Meanwhile, money supply growth remains above levels that some economists associate with long-term price stability.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
1 week ago

Europe's VC Market Is Splitting Into Three Tiers

The UK's venture capital dominance is about more than London. As funding concentrates around hubs like Cambridge and Oxford, Europe's startup landscape is shifting from national ecosystems to specialized centers of technological leverage.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
1 week ago

Inflation Risks Are Rising Again as Business Costs Surge

Business costs are climbing at one of the fastest rates since the post-pandemic inflation shock, while oil prices have nearly doubled this year. The combination raises questions about whether inflation is ready to make a comeback.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
2 weeks ago

America’s Consumer Strength Is Being Funded by Vanishing Savings and Record Debt

The personal savings rate has fallen to 2.6%, while revolving credit has climbed above $1 trillion - exposing growing pressure beneath resilient consumer spending data.

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Alex Dudov Alex Dudov Global economy
2 weeks ago

America’s Credit Card Boom Is Starting to Look Like a Warning Signal

Americans are carrying more debt than ever before, and doing so at the highest credit card rates in decades. With balances topping $1.3 trillion and APRs exceeding 20%, the real risk may not be a wave of defaults, but the growing share of household income consumed by interest payments.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
2 weeks ago

Why America's Supply Chains Remain More Fragile Than They Appear

Despite years of reshoring efforts and industrial policy initiatives, a large share of U.S. manufactured imports remains dependent on a small number of suppliers and countries. New data from McKinsey Global Institute suggest that trade vulnerabilities persist across critical industries ranging from semiconductors to clean-energy technologies.

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Peter Smith Peter Smith Global economy
3 weeks ago

Wall Street Is Quietly Pricing a Much Stronger Economy Than Headlines Suggest

Wall Street may be pricing a much stronger economy than current macro narratives suggest. Current S&P 500 revenue expectations imply an economy still running at unusually high nominal growth levels despite persistent slowdown fears.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
3 weeks ago

Italy’s Economy Has a Productivity Problem, Not Just a Growth Problem

Italy’s economy is not collapsing - but it has stopped compounding. While the country remains one of Europe’s industrial powers, decades of weak productivity growth, stagnant wages, demographic decline, and structural inefficiency are slowly eroding its long-term growth model. The real crisis is no longer cyclical slowdown, but the inability to turn industrial strength into rising living standards.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
4 weeks ago

Consumers Haven’t Stopped Spending - They’ve Started Stretching

U.S. consumers are still spending, but the foundation behind that resilience is weakening. Three charts - retail sales, savings rates, and rising credit card delinquencies suggest the post-pandemic consumer boom is becoming increasingly dependent on wages and debt rather than excess liquidity.

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Sergey Diakov Sergey Diakov Global economy
4 weeks ago

Imported Inflation May Be Quietly Returning

In recent months, market participants viewed the prices of imported products as a declining concern.

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Sergey Diakov Sergey Diakov Global economy
1 month ago

Why Semiconductor Revenue Is Exploding - And Why It Matters for the Entire Global Economy

Global semiconductor revenue is approaching $1 trillion annually as artificial intelligence drives an unprecedented surge in chip demand, hyperscaler infrastructure spending, and geopolitical competition over advanced manufacturing capacity. The AI boom is rapidly transforming semiconductors from a cyclical tech industry into one of the world’s most strategically important economic sectors.

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Marina Lubimova Marina Lubimova Global economy
1 month ago

America’s Federal Workforce Is Shrinking Fast: Why Contrarian Investors Are Paying Attention

America’s shrinking federal workforce may be signaling far deeper economic stress than Wall Street currently expects. While investors remain focused on AI-driven market rallies, rising debt costs, labor market cracks, and extreme concentration in Big Tech could be quietly reshaping the broader macroeconomic landscape.

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Artem Voloskovets Artem Voloskovets Global economy
1 month ago

Europe’s Record Farm Exports Mask a Dangerous Trend

EU agricultural exports hit record highs in 2025, but rapidly rising imports are shrinking the bloc’s trade surplus and exposing a deeper structural weakness. The latest Eurostat data suggests Europe’s food sector may be becoming more dependent on external supply despite booming export numbers.

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How One Decision in Washington Triggered a Global Market Rally
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The Fed's Reverse Repo Facility Is Almost Empty. That Matters More Than the Latest Uptick
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Mortgage Rates Aren't Falling. That's Becoming a Bigger Problem Than Rates Themselves
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IMF's ECB Warning Signals a Bigger Problem Than Another Rate Hike
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