Marina Lubimova
The median analyst forecast now calls for one additional 25bp hike, although economists are divided between October and December.
Bank Forecasts
The supplied analyst survey covers 26 institutions:
| Additional tightening | Banks | Share |
| 50bp | 8 | 31% |
| 25bp | 14 | 54% |
| 0bp | 4 | 15% |
That means 22 of 26 banks (85%) expect at least one more hike. Eight expect another 50bp, implying two additional 25bp moves.
Expected additional Fed tightening
Who Changed Their Forecast?
Several banks became more hawkish after the FOMC meeting:
- Goldman Sachs: added a 25bp October hike. It now expects cuts in September and December 2027 and March 2028.
- Morgan Stanley: now expects two additional 25bp hikes through Q1 2027.
- NatWest: added a 25bp October hike.
- Swedbank: added a 25bp October hike.
- Standard Chartered: moved from no further hikes to a 25bp December hike.
- Commerzbank: added a 25bp December hike and reduced its expected 2027 easing.
- Rabobank: still expects no additional hikes, but reduced its expected cuts from three in 2027 to one in December 2027 and another in December 2028.
Goldman’s and Morgan Stanley’s more hawkish revisions have also been reported by Reuters.
October vs. December
The forecasts split mainly on timing.
- October: Goldman Sachs, NatWest and Swedbank now expect a 25bp hike. ANZ, BofA and RBC expect hikes in both October and December.
- December: Standard Chartered and Commerzbank expect their next hike in December. BMO, JPMorgan, MUFG and UniCredit also maintain December calls.
- More aggressive paths include TD: October + January, BNP Paribas: December + January, and Deutsche Bank/Société Générale: December + March.
At the opposite end, ING, Rabobank, SEB and Citi expect no additional hikes.
Fed Rate Path: June vs. September
The Fed itself also shifted toward higher rates.
| Median projection | June | September | Change |
| 2026 fed funds rate | 3.8% | 4.1% | +30bp |
| 2027 | 3.6% | 4.1% | +50bp |
| 2028 | 3.4% | 3.9% | +50bp |
| Longer run | 3.1% | 3.2% | +10bp |
| 2026 unemployment | 4.3% | 4.1% | −0.2pp |
| 2026 PCE inflation | 3.6% | 3.7% | +0.1pp |
| 2026 core PCE | 3.3% | 3.4% | +0.1pp |
The September dot plot shows 16 of 18 Fed officials expecting at least one additional hike in 2026: 12 project a 4.125% year-end midpoint and four project 4.375%. Only two project 3.875%.
The main post-FOMC change is not just another potential 25bp hike: expected rate cuts are also being pushed back or removed.
The analyst survey now has 85% of banks expecting further tightening, while the Fed raised its 2027 and 2028 median rate projections by 50bp compared with June. The remaining disagreement is primarily over whether the next move comes in October, December or not at all.
Marina Lubimova
