Marina Lubimova
- September Breaks a Four-Month Recovery
- Behind the -16.5 Reading
- Negative Doesn't Mean a Percentage Decline
- Sentiment and Spending Tell Different Stories
- Households Are Saving Less Than in 2024
- Inflation Expectations Are Moving Higher Again
- Consumers Can Weaken While Businesses Improve
- One Weak Reading Is Not a Recession Signal
- From Household Mood to ECB Expectations
- The Next Numbers to Watch
- Quick Reference
The indicator declined after four consecutive months of recovery and moved further below its long-term average.
September Breaks a Four-Month Recovery
| Indicator | September 2026 |
| Consumer Confidence | -16.5 |
| Previous | -15.5 |
| Market estimate | -16.0 |
| Monthly change | -1.0 pp |
| Surprise vs. estimate | -0.5 pp |
The EU-wide indicator declined by 0.8 points to -15.8. The September flash estimate covers survey responses collected between September 1 and September 21 and represents 83.8% of euro-area private final consumption expenditure.
September's decline ended four consecutive months of improving consumer confidence.
Behind the -16.5 Reading
The Consumer Confidence Indicator (CCI) is a monthly European Commission survey measuring household sentiment.
The current index combines four areas:
- households' financial situation;
- expectations for the general economy;
- expectations for major purchases;
- household financial expectations over the next 12 months.
Responses are converted into balances between positive and negative answers and combined into the headline index.
Therefore, -16.5 does not mean confidence declined 16.5%. A negative reading means negative responses outweigh positive ones.
The European Commission introduced the current CCI methodology in January 2019, partly to improve its relationship with private consumption.
Negative Doesn't Mean a Percentage Decline
The direction of the index is generally more useful than the absolute number.
| Movement | Interpretation |
| -25 → -15 | Confidence improving |
| -10 → -16 | Confidence deteriorating |
| Above 0 | Positive responses dominate |
| Below 0 | Negative responses dominate |
September's move from -15.5 to -16.5 represents a deterioration of 1.0 point.
Sentiment and Spending Tell Different Stories
Consumer confidence measures sentiment, not actual expenditure. In Q1 2026, real household consumption per capita in the euro area was unchanged quarter-over-quarter after increasing 0.5% in Q4 2025.
| Household indicator | Q1 2026 |
| Real consumption per capita | 0.0% q/q |
| Real income per capita | 0.0% q/q |
| Nominal consumption expenditure | +0.8% q/q |
| Gross disposable income | +0.7% q/q |
| Household saving rate | 14.3% |
The difference is important: confidence can deteriorate without producing an immediate decline in spending.
Households Are Saving Less Than in 2024
The euro-area household saving rate remained at 14.3% in Q1 2026, unchanged from the previous quarter.
| Period | Saving rate |
| Q2 2024 | 15.2% |
| Q3 2024 | 14.9% |
| Q4 2024 | 14.7% |
| Q1 2025 | 14.9% |
| Q2 2025 | 14.9% |
| Q3 2025 | 14.6% |
| Q4 2025 | 14.3% |
| Q1 2026 | 14.3% |
The rate has declined 0.9 percentage points from Q2 2024, despite consumer confidence remaining negative.
Inflation Expectations Are Moving Higher Again
The ECB's August 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey provides additional context.
| Consumer expectation | August 2026 |
| Inflation, 1 year | 3.0% |
| Inflation, 3 years | 2.9% |
| Inflation, 5 years | 2.5% |
| Nominal income growth | 1.0% |
| Nominal spending growth | 3.6% |
One-year inflation expectations increased from 2.9% to 3.0%, three-year expectations from 2.7% to 2.9%, and five-year expectations from 2.4% to 2.5%. Consumers expected nominal spending to increase 3.6% over the following 12 months, compared with just 1.0% expected nominal income growth.
Consumers Can Weaken While Businesses Improve
Consumer Confidence is separate from the European Commission's broader Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI).
| Indicator | Coverage |
| Consumer Confidence | Households |
| Industrial Confidence | Manufacturing |
| Services Confidence | Services |
| Retail Trade Confidence | Retail |
| Construction Confidence | Construction |
| ESI | Combined economic sentiment |
Consumer and business sentiment can therefore move in different directions.
One Weak Reading Is Not a Recession Signal
Consumer confidence often falls during economic downturns, but the index alone cannot establish that the economy is entering a recession. More useful confirmation comes from GDP growth, PMIs, unemployment, retail sales, industrial production, household consumption and credit conditions. Persistent deterioration across several indicators carries more information than a single monthly CCI move.
From Household Mood to ECB Expectations
For markets, consumer confidence matters mainly through its potential connection with spending and economic activity:
Consumer confidence → household spending → growth and inflation → ECB policy expectations.
A large surprise can therefore influence expectations for European interest rates and the euro, particularly when other economic indicators point in the same direction.
The Next Numbers to Watch
The European Commission publishes consumer confidence monthly. A flash estimate is released first, followed by the full Business and Consumer Survey.
For the current cycle:
- September flash CCI: -16.5
- Full September survey: September 29, 2026
- October flash CCI: October 22, 2026
Quick Reference
- Latest reading: -16.5
- Previous: -15.5
- September change: -1.0 point
- Consensus: -16.0
- Publisher: European Commission, DG ECFIN
- Frequency: Monthly
- Type: Survey-based sentiment indicator
A negative CCI means pessimistic responses outweigh optimistic ones; it is not a percentage decline. The September reading ended four months of improvement, while separate household data show a 14.3% saving rate, flat real consumption per capita in Q1 2026 and rising short- and medium-term inflation expectations.
Marina Lubimova
