Oil See-Saws Back Down

Oil Price downFrom bears to bulls to bears again, it seems like oil’s wild ride has found an interesting pivot point on which it see-saws from one week to the next. Over the past 2 weeks, oil prices recovered and touched the $50 USD per barrel psychological barrier. At this point, the factors that are keeping supply high and prices well below their 2014 highs, kicked in again. The US added 10 oil rigs, completing an 8 week oil rig count increase, while China flooded the markets with refined products – gasoline and diesel. The threat of attacks against oil infrastructure in Nigeria subsided and Iraq declared it will put an additional 150,000 barrels of oil per day on the market. This rounded the over-supply trend off, and sent the price diving, according to Reuters. read more…

Is China Headed For A Bust?

ChinaOne of the most marvelous economic stories of the last 2 decades seems to be running into murky waters. Experts are increasingly pointing to the excess of credit in China, and decreasing economic growth as the driving forces behind the next global financial meltdown. Many of these experts are saying that the downturn is not only inevitable, but that it is imminent.

Much of the economic data that may show that the Chinese slowdown is heading towards a stall and crash situation, raises justifiable concerns. There is excessive corporate debt in China, and credit keeps on growing in a global environment of cheap money. The expansion of credit might be unsustainable, and could trigger a downturn similar to the 2008-09 crisis in the US – which eventually spread around the world. read more…

Rate Hike Speculation Continues

Interest rate hikeCarefully worded statements matter, especially when the vice-chairman of the rate setting FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – is the one releasing the statement. Markets will react immediately, following their hyper-sensitive tendencies. The problem is that although these statements might signal the right policy choice, and should be taken as a warning, once the deadline to act passes without any rate hikes, then another piece of credibility erodes. That is precisely why the markets are in this conundrum.

This time it was William Dudley who issued the statement, warning about market complacency regarding a possible rate hike during the Fed’s September meeting. The statement clearly states that the markets are underestimating the possibility of a rate hike, and it could well happen in September. The problem is that the markets have gotten these kinds of warnings time and again, but nothing has happened. read more…

Decoupling Of Oil Markets And The Loonie

Canadian dollar and oil pricesFor the past few years, there has been a very strong correlation between the price of oil and the strength of the Canadian dollar. In the last few weeks, this correlation has been weakening, as oil price fluctuations seem to affect the Loonie more when oil goes down, but not as much when the price of crude recovers. This is further proof about general economic weakness in Canada, which was hardly hit by the 2014 oil price plunge and has not been able to shift its export base to recover.

The Canadian dollar has only recovered by 0.5% after an oil price recovery of about 8% in August. This situation shows that Canada, having – in theory – all the instruments necessary to recover from the downturn in oil markets, has not been able to turn its situation around. Economic theory points towards proximity, common language, economic size and economic compatibility as factors that could boost one nation’s exports to another’s. Canada has all these factors working for it vis-à-vis the US, but has failed to capitalize. read more…

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The Binary Options Wolf Den

Binary Options a Scam?The binary options industry has always been an industry dominated by dubious organizations. Just recently we have been seeing more and more efforts to expose the overwhelming amount of scammers that run it. Governmental organizations and financial regulators across the globe have been actively looking for the wolves who are running all the scamming activities. It seems that these wolves are particularly crafty and they have been able to avoid legal sanctions with unparalleled guile. read more…

Financial Markets – Preview for Week Starting 21st August 2016

Major Events of Last Week

Financial UpdatesWith global bankers convening for their annual meeting at Jackson Hole USA, next week, investors will now once again start focusing their attention on the timing of the next interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. In Europe, equities posted their largest weekly decline in practically two months last Friday while the Bank of England (BoE) expressed relief amid growing evidence that the British economy may have successfully weathered the storm generated by June’s surprise Brexit decision. The leading US indices weakened last Friday exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 54 points; the S&P500 falling 6 points and the NASDAQ slipping 10 points lower. read more…

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Santa Effect on Bitcoin?

santa-bitcoinThere is no doubt that 2015 has been full of economic volatility. From the price of oil, to stocks, indices and the economic performance of key countries, it has been a year in which finding a safe haven was an almost impossible mission. From within all the volatility, is seems that one of the best performers was Bitcoin. However, it also dipped after a stark rise in October, but it seems to be picking up steam again towards the year’s end. Maybe it is a kind of ‘Santa Claus Rally’ for a strange mix of investors.
read more…

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