The downturn that started on Friday, the day after Britain decided it wanted to part ways with the EU, was indeed exaggerated. Now the markets are taking a break from the self-flagellation, and investors seem to be returning to the fundamentals. Although it is too early to understand if the short rally on Tuesday will hold, it sure seems like it should, at least from the purely rational perspective. It is true that Brexit has created a measure of uncertainty in the future, but the wide-spread panic was not justified. This is especially true given the fact that Brexit will be done in a coordinated and organized manner, which should ameliorate its long term impact on the markets, to the point to which it will be largely negligible.
Major indexes, as well as commodities advanced on Tuesday to cut the losses accumulated since June 25th. Oil was up just over 2% in the NYSE, while the Dow-Jones, FTSE and Nikkei all saw sizable advances. The Euro recovered somewhat against the US Dollar, as did most major currencies – including the British Pound – which lost value against the Greenback as soon as investors started looking for safe havens to protect their capital from the Brexit whiplash.
Along with the Greenback, gold shed about 0.5% of its value as panic abated. Still, volatility is expected to remain quite high in the markets, and investors will be listening carefully to what the politicians and bureaucrats in Europe have to say. Reliance on certain comments or headlines, will for sure hold the markets hostage to speculation, as much as European leaders are claiming they are being held hostage to Brexit.
Maybe it is time for political leaders to work hard in order to solve the underlying economic problems that undermine the long term stability of markets, instead of filling the sound bites with Brexit related sensationalism. If they do so, not only will they be doing what they were elected to do – the real problems started way before Brexit was even an option – but they will be helping investors focus on the fundamentals instead of the hype around the contraction of the EU.