Nigeria pumped 90,000 more barrels of oil per day during the month of June, than in July, and Libya boosted its production by 40,000 barrels a day, resuming exports. These numbers, coupled with an increase in Saudi production, have kept WTI below the $50 USD mark for more than a week now. The trend indicates further moderate losses, and a price range of between $45 and $50 USD for the week ahead.
Since the price changes have been relatively moderate, major oil dependent currencies have not varied significantly, and are not expected to. The Canadian Dollar has had moderate gains and is holding steady at around 0.77 USD. The Australian Dollar has also rebounded somewhat since Brexit fears hit, reflecting the relative stability of oil prices and the prices of other raw materials. The Aussie is holding steady at around 0.75 USD. The Russian Ruble is almost flat as well, holding at around 64:1 to the Greenback.
Oil prices will likely see a rally if the conditions change on the demand side. Supply shocks so far have been relatively small and temporary, which means that reserve volumes in the US and elsewhere will not decline at a great pace. Only a fully-fledged economic recovery, with a great push from a country like India, can help oil markets reach the $60-$70 USD range over the next year.
