The doom and gloom scenarios about jobs moving out of the UK to places like Germany – which is expected to be the new financial heart within the EU – have not materialized. This is despite the fact that everyone knows Brexit will happen. Banks are not rushing to build new headquarters in Frankfurt and London is still bustling with new business. It seems that such an economic cluster that has been there for centuries, will not be uprooted that easily.
Far from that, the situation has actually improved from last year. Unemployment is down by about 0.5% compared to the same period last year, and it seems that Brexit might have actually helped. The UK is now enjoying a weaker pound, which makes their exports more attractive, while still being a member of the EU. It seems that at least for now the UK will be able to have its cake and eat it too, but once Brexit happens, then it will be too late for many companies to jump ship. They will probably keep their offices in a place where the labor force is highly qualified, competitive, and because of the decline of the Pound, also cheaper.
Another factor that many analysts missed when they condemned the UK to an era of economic darkness in their calculations, is the fact that no one really knows how the Brexit agreement will be shaped. Britain may well end up having its cake while eating a significant part of it once the die is cast. This is why the great unemployment figures coming out right now should not surprise anyone, except for those who had already dismissed the fifth largest economy in the world. For the rest of us, these figures just prove the extent to which pundits can become baseless fear mongers and shake the markets with their speculation.
