Artem Voloskovets
On a seasonally adjusted basis, GDP increased 1.4% quarter over quarter, compared with a revised 0.3% contraction in Q1. The preliminary Q2 estimate had shown growth of 1.5% QoQ and 2.2% YoY, meaning both measures were revised down by 0.1 percentage point.
| GDP indicator | Q1 2026 | Q2 preliminary | Q2 final |
| QoQ | -0.3% | +1.5% | +1.4% |
| YoY | — | +2.2% | +2.1% |
Agriculture Led the Quarterly Increase
Growth was positive across the three major sectors.
Primary activities, including agriculture, livestock, forestry and fishing, increased 2.4% QoQ. Secondary activities, which include manufacturing, construction, mining and utilities, rose 1.5%. Tertiary activities, dominated by services and commerce, expanded 1.3%.
On an annual basis, primary activities increased 3.2%, secondary activities rose 2.1%, and services expanded 2.0%. The data show that Q2 growth was broad-based rather than driven by a single sector.
Q2 Reversed the First-Quarter Contraction
The shift from -0.3% QoQ in Q1 to +1.4% in Q2 represents a 1.7 percentage-point swing in sequential GDP growth.
However, the final figures were weaker than the initial release:
- Quarterly GDP: 1.4% vs. 1.5% preliminary
- Annual GDP: 2.1% vs. 2.2% preliminary
- Annual consensus: 2.2%
- Q1 GDP: -0.3% QoQ
The 2.1% annual rate also remains modest relative to the strength of the quarterly rebound, indicating that part of the Q2 increase reflected recovery from the weak start to the year.
Banxico Gets More Room to Focus on Inflation
The Q2 expansion reduces evidence of an immediate growth problem for Banco de México.
Mexico’s benchmark interest rate stands at 6.5%, while annual headline inflation reached 3.26% in the first half of August. Core inflation was higher at 3.93%, compared with Banxico’s 3% inflation target.
That leaves core inflation about 0.9 percentage point above target, while GDP has returned to positive sequential growth.
The combination of +1.4% quarterly GDP growth and persistent core inflation gives Banxico less reason to accelerate monetary easing solely to support economic activity.
The key data point for Q3 will be whether Mexico can maintain positive sequential growth after the Q2 rebound rather than slip back toward the near-zero growth seen at the start of the year.
Artem Voloskovets
