Marina Lubimova
The bank now expects Brent crude to average $100 per barrel in Q4 2026, up from $75 previously. Its WTI forecast was raised to $96 from $76.
The bank also lifted its forecasts for the first half of 2027:
| Period | Brent | WTI |
| Q4 2026 | $100 | $96 |
| Q1 2027 | $95 | $91 |
| Q2 2027 | $90 | $86 |
For Brent, the Q4 revision is $25 per barrel, or 33%, above Morgan Stanley's previous estimate.
Morgan Stanley Moves Far Above Consensus
The revised forecasts contrast sharply with expectations across major banks. A Wall Street Journal survey puts average 2026 Brent at $83.81 per barrel and WTI at $78.79. For 2027, the consensus falls to $71.22 for Brent and $67.33 for WTI.
| Benchmark | 2026 Consensus | 2027 Consensus |
| Brent | $83.81 | $71.22 |
| WTI | $78.79 | $67.33 |
Morgan Stanley's Q4 Brent forecast of $100 is about 19% above the $83.81 full-year 2026 consensus. Its Q2 2027 forecast of $90 is roughly 26% above the $71.22 consensus for 2027.
The comparison is not like-for-like — Morgan Stanley's figures are quarterly forecasts while the survey figures are annual averages, but the gap shows how much more bullish the bank has become.
The Price Peak Is Expected in Q4
Morgan Stanley's forecast curve points to the strongest pricing environment late in 2026, followed by a gradual decline.
Brent is projected to move from $100 in Q4 2026 to $95 in Q1 2027 and $90 in Q2. WTI follows the same pattern, declining from $96 to $91 and then $86. That is a $10 decline for both benchmarks between Q4 2026 and Q2 2027, but prices would remain well above the levels implied by the broader 2027 consensus.
The structure suggests Morgan Stanley expects current market tightness to persist into early 2027 rather than disappear immediately.
The Gap With 2027 Consensus Is the Key Risk
The largest disagreement concerns 2027. Major banks surveyed by the WSJ expect Brent to fall from an average $83.81 in 2026 to $71.22 in 2027, a decline of about 15%. WTI is expected to fall from $78.79 to $67.33, also roughly 15%. Morgan Stanley still sees Brent at $90 and WTI at $86 in Q2 2027.
That puts its Q2 estimates:
- $18.78 above the 2027 Brent consensus;
- $18.67 above the 2027 WTI consensus.
The difference matters for inflation expectations, transportation costs and energy-sector earnings. If Morgan Stanley is closer to the eventual outcome, oil prices could remain an inflationary factor well into 2027 rather than falling back toward the $70 range.
For energy producers, the revised forecast would also imply a substantially stronger revenue environment than the broader consensus currently assumes.
Morgan Stanley's revision therefore shifts the oil debate from whether prices can briefly reach $100 to how long prices can remain elevated after the initial spike.
Marina Lubimova
