Marina Lubimova
In January–June, the country produced 13.3 million metric tons of oil and condensate, about 421,800 tons less than a year earlier. That represented a 3.1% decline. The July update shows little change in the trend heading into the second half of 2026.
ACG Drives the Decline
The Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) complex remains Azerbaijan’s main source of crude and the largest factor behind changes in national production.
During January–June 2026:
- ACG: 7.9 million tons
- Shah Deniz condensate: 1.7 million tons
- Absheron condensate: 0.3 million tons
- SOCAR: 3.4 million tons of oil and condensate
Crude production averaged about 449,000 barrels per day, while condensate contributed another 103,000 bpd, putting combined output near 552,000 bpd.
For comparison, combined production averaged about 555,000 bpd in the first quarter. The decline predates 2026. Azerbaijan produced 27.68 million tons of crude and condensate in 2025, down 4.7% from 2024.
Exports Fell 15.9%
Export volumes have declined much faster than production. Azerbaijan exported about 10.125 million tons of crude oil and related products in January–June 2026, down 15.9% year over year, or roughly 1.92 million tons.
Export revenue fell only 2.8% to $6.23 billion, meaning prices partly offset the drop in physical volumes.
| January–June 2026 | Result |
| Oil and condensate production | 13.3 million tons |
| Production change | -3.1% YoY |
| Average crude output | 449,000 bpd |
| Condensate output | 103,000 bpd |
| Crude/product exports | 10.125 million tons |
| Export volume change | -15.9% YoY |
| Export value | $6.23 billion |
The gap is substantial: production fell about 3%, while export volumes dropped almost 16%. That makes exports the more important number for the international market.
Gas Moves in the Opposite Direction
Oil output is declining, but Azerbaijan’s gas sector is still expanding. Gas production reached 25.4 billion cubic meters in January–June 2026, versus 25.2 bcm a year earlier. Exports increased to 12.7 bcm from 12.1 bcm.
Europe received 5.9 bcm, Türkiye 4.9 bcm and Georgia 1.2 bcm. Another 0.7 bcm was supplied to Syria. About 3 bcm of exports to Türkiye moved through TANAP. The contrast is becoming clearer: Azerbaijan is producing less oil while exporting more natural gas.
The Numbers to Watch
The 3% January–July decline is small relative to global oil supply, but it continues a longer contraction in Azerbaijani production.
ACG has produced more than 625 million tons of oil since development began. Maintaining national output therefore increasingly depends on whether new projects and additional recovery from existing fields can replace declining production from mature assets.
The immediate market signal is in exports. A 15.9% decline in first-half export volumes, against only a 3.1% production decline, means fewer Azerbaijani barrels are reaching external markets than the headline production figure alone suggests.
If that gap continues through the second half of 2026, Azerbaijan’s crude exports could weaken considerably faster than its domestic production statistics indicate. At the same time, higher gas exports are shifting more of the country’s energy growth toward natural gas.
Marina Lubimova
