Artem Voloskovets
EUR/USD has formed a critical technical pattern that traders watch closely as a shift in trend momentum. According to TradingShotr, this isn't just a short-term wobble - it confirms a new bear cycle taking hold after an extended period of directional ambiguity.
EUR/USD Death Cross: The Signal That Changed the Picture
The pair has printed a 1D death cross, with the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200-day moving average. What makes this notable is the timing - this is the first such crossover in approximately 1.5 years, marking a meaningful structural shift rather than routine noise.
When a death cross appears after such a long absence, it tends to carry more weight than a signal that fires frequently. The market has had plenty of time to build up trend momentum in one direction, and this crossover suggests that momentum is now flipping.
The first daily death cross in 1.5 years is not a routine signal - it marks a structural shift in the trend, confirming a new bear cycle is underway.
EUR/USD Descending Channel: A Lower High Keeps the Pressure On
EUR/USD has been trading inside a three-month descending channel, and the recent price action did little to challenge that structure. The pair pushed toward the upper boundary of the channel but failed to break through, leaving behind a lower high.
That rejection matters. A lower high continues the sequence that defines a downtrend - lower highs followed by lower lows - and keeps the bearish case intact. As long as price remains capped by the channel's upper rail, sellers have the structural argument on their side.
Price reached for the upper boundary of the channel and got turned away. That rejection, forming a lower high, tells you everything about who is still in control.
Why 1.1300 Is the Next Key Target for EUR/USD
The chart projects a move toward 1.1300, derived from the 1.382 Fibonacci extension measured off the previous bearish leg. If the current leg mirrors that prior structure in magnitude, the 1.1300 level becomes the natural landing zone.
This isn't an arbitrary number. Fibonacci extensions drawn from established swings give traders a framework for where a continuation move could exhaust itself, and 1.1300 sits at a mathematically significant point within that framework.
If EURUSD repeats the structure of its previous bearish leg, the 1.382 Fibonacci extension puts the next target squarely at 1.1300.
Technical Signals Aligned: What the Setup Looks Like Now
Several factors are converging to keep the bearish case on the table:
- 1D death cross confirmed - first in roughly 1.5 years
- Lower high printed at the channel's upper boundary
- Descending channel structure intact after three months
- Fibonacci extension pointing to 1.1300 as the projected target
With these elements lined up, EUR/USD appears positioned for a continuation lower, provided the channel structure holds and sellers keep a lid on any bounce attempts toward the upper rail.
Artem Voloskovets
